What Can We Expect for the US Dollar, Gold and Oil in the Year 2015?

Posted by Deb | Guest Post,Investments | Monday 15 June 2015 8:28 pm

This last year, 2014, will undoubtedly take its place in the history. During 2014, risks had been growing around Ukraine and the Middle East. One of the main events of the year was the collapse of oil prices. In June, 2014 barrel costed about 115$, but in the last days of the year quotes slumped to  56$.

What Can we expect for the year 2015?

Oil market

The main reasons for the oil prices collapse in 2014 were:

  • Increase of hydrocarbons production in the USA from 9.8 to 11.5 mln barrels per day;
  • Recession in countries of the European Union led to decrease in consumption and prices of hydrocarbons;
  • Growth of supply in Iran planning to increase production twice and Libya’s return to the market;
  • Technological factor: improvement of technology of production and decrease of prime cost as the result.

Currently, one can witness a disproportion between demand and supply: Every  day,  the level of oil production exceeds the market  demand by 600-700 thousand of barrels.

Analytics of the US investment banks assume that sometime during the first two quarters of 2015 year this index can grow up to 1.25 mln barrels per day. This factor will put a strong pressure on oil quotations,  so that we may see  again the low values  of 2008, when the  cost of Brent was $36 per barrel.

US dollar

The main global currency was boosted by the growth of the US economy which was growing with the fastest pace of the last 11 years. The US department of commerce revised its GDP estimation and defined it up to 5% per annum. Such estimation was justified by a higher consumer demand  and expenses of business. It was the fastest pace since 2003. It had been reported earlier that US economy grew for 3.9%.

This intensive growth in 2014 lays a solid foundation for 2015 and we can expect that the US currency will be consolidated against its major competitors.

Gold

Finally,  let’s talk about gold. Since there is no inflation risk in the USA – on the contrary, deflation presses Europe - there is no ground for traders to invest in gold: savings are not depreciated. This can make the precious metals less popular and quotes of gold may get to $1100 per ounce.

Confident growth of the US economy will support global markets through 2015, whereas low oil prices will have a positive effect for the economic growth in general.

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Epistle to ISIS (by Sivan Har-Shefi)

Posted by Deb | Politics | Friday 12 September 2014 4:06 pm

Epistle to ISIS | Sivan Harshefi | Translation: Moshe Pollak*

You who say: “Infidels! You have no God!”
you know not humanity, heart, God’s Image.
You who behead men into pits
you who bind women’s heads
with the black of night
you who turn their homes into prisons,
their houses into graves
you who repudiate Life!
you who deny Good!
you who disown Peace!
all which are names of God.
You the hooded
who cover your faces to strike fear –
from fear of yourselves, of your god,
from fear of your own stiff–necked faces
your hollow non-faces
that have no absolution.
You who chop off hands held out
Lifelines, caresses of love, pleas for mercy –
who is this god of yours, cruel and cowardly,,
threatened by free thought,
terrified of a body designed in His Image,
full of hatred for His Creations,
who pursues them like one pursued?
You who glory in death
you who exult in might
in death and in might will be your shame!
You who sow fear and destruction
shall reap the fruits of terror and devastation!
For God is greater than your narrow-mindedness,
greater than a peephole that you don’t leave for eyes to see
the beauty of the world that He created.
For greater is the spirit of Man
than the noose you tie round his neck.
For greater is the energy of Life, the power of Love, the strength of Peace
than the might of your hand that shall quiver when disarmed by the Administrator of Justice
Who has compassion for the compassionate,
greater than the confidence of your conviction that will dissolve on judgment day
like a fart, with its scent of corrupt honor and greed
greater indeed than the force of your hatred that is deaf to your soul’s weeping
over the abyss of abysses into which you have sunk.
Remember your mother and her mother, and repent.
Be real men, and recant.
And let your return be not to the sword nor to the book,
but to the heart, a human heart,
and to the life it gave gave, not took!
for the heart is the beat of a living God
Who seeks Life.
Who calls: Freedom!
Whose prophecy is: Love!
Who commands: Mercy!
You who ignite the Eastern hemisphere
just as your predecessors inflamed the Western half
your end will be as theirs, in the fire you started you will be consumed.
You faithfully catechized the verses of judgment
but you did not learn the verdicts of judgment day
the day of your joy is the day of your woe,
the land you conquer will vomit you forth,
your punishment will be vast as your crimes,
your aftermath will be as that of all ghosts
that dissipate with night
your name will be spitfully remembered just to be eradicated
your memory recorded only to perpetuate your death
the demise of evil in the world.
If a speck of goodness is left in you, tiny and hidden as a birthmark,
from your mother’s womb and her bosom’s warmth
God and his children urge you:
do not ignore this gift of God
water this human vestige with your tears to atone for your actions
nurture it with deeds of amendment and benevolence
do not wait until the next Ramadan to fast and atone for your evils
for you will be indicted by God
not for underdevotion
but for overdevotion
not for lack of faith
but for overabundance of false convictions
not for feebleness
but for force and violence.
You are the unloved son who is entrenched in his hatred to his brothers,
the exploited soul that, having no room and no rest, dominates all
if you desire your Father’s blessing
from Whom you distanced yourself so far,
return and draw near to His goodness, to His image:
Allahu akbar (God is Great) in compassion
Allahu akbar in peace
Allah is greater than infinity, and wide enough to contain
believers and infidels, both of whom He created,
for all of whom in His grace He made space.
Allah is great and does not need and does not wish
that man be handcuffed to Him.
Do not imprison yourselves behind solid walls of laws you legislated,
do not turn your women – hence yourselves – into slaves
do not get locked in the solitary confinement of your beliefs,
where your children will grow up in fear
until their hearts will turn in hatred against you.
slash the sword:
revolt against death to gain life
rebel against fear of the other to gain friendship
rise up against hatred to win love
overthrow the instinct of conquest, to attain peace of mind
purge hubris – you did not swallow all wisdom – to gain God’s proximity,
attainable only through humility.
wash blood off your hands, and your Father will place His on your heads.
Else
it is you yourselves that you shoot,
your own heads that you decapitate,
your own women that you rape,
your own children that you kill,
and all those images that you gleefully broadcast to the world
in the judgment of history, from the vantage-point of posterity,
they are but a mirror-image of yourselves
falling into the trenches that you dug with your own hands
emitting last bubbles of air under the soil of Iraq,
under the ground of Syria,
under the earth of the Levant
that you’ve heaped on your heads and backs
- your graves to be -
you ,
the living dead.

 

*My thanks to Esther Cameron for her help in translation

——

سفر داعش بقلم سيفان هار شيفي
ترجمة روجيه طابور

أنتم القائلون: “كفار! لا إله لكم” -
لستم الانسانٓ، لستم القلبٓ ولستم على صورة الخالق.
أنتم القاطعون الرؤوسٓ الى الحُفر
أنتم اللاجمون عقول النساء
بحلكة الظلام -
أنتم الجاعلون بيتَهنّ سجنَهنّ
بيتَهنّ قبرَهُنّ -
أنتم الكافرون بالحياة!
أنتم الجاحدون بالخير!
أنتمُ الرّافضون للسّلام!
وكلُّها أسماءُ الله الحُسنى.
أنتم ملثّمو الوجوه
يا مَن تُخْفون وجوهَكم لتُخيفوا
وبخوفكم تتستّرون من وجوهكم، من وجهِ ربِّكم
خوفاً مِن وجوهِكم القاسية كالرِّقاب
خوفا مِن لا وجوهِكُمُ الجَوْفاء
حيث لا مغفرة لها.
أنتم القاطعون الأيدي الممدودة
عروقُ حياةٍ فيها، لمساتُ حُبٍّ واسْترحام -
مَن إلهكُمُ الشريرُ الهَلوع
تهددُهُ حرية الفكر
يُرعبه جسمٌ بصورته
يكرهُ كلَّ مَن خَلَق
يُطاردُهم كالمُطارَد؟
أنتم المتباهون بالموت
أنتم المتفاخرون بالبطش -
بالموت والسيف لكم العار!
أنتم الزارعون الخوفَ والدمار
حصرم الرعبِ والخراب ستَضْرِسون!
لأن الله أكبرُ من ضيق عقولكم
ومِنَ الثقوبِ التي لا تُبقونَها لتَرَوْن
جمالَ ما خَلـَق.
لأنَّ روحَ الإنسانِ أكبرَ
من طوقٍ علـّـقـتُموه على جيدِه.
لأنّ نبضَ الحياةِ ونبضَ الحبِّ والسّلام
أقوى مِن ذراعكم المرتعِشةِ يومَ يجيءُ الحقُّ
الراحمِ للرّاحمين,
وأقوى من إيمانكم فسيُزهقُ الباطلُ يومَ الدين
كتلاشي الفُساء، رائحتُهُ كنَفْحَةِ شَرَهِ الصَوْلَةٍ وَالجاه,
وأقوى مِن قسوة حِقْدِكُمُ المتجاهِلِ لأرواحِكُمُ الباكية
على هاويةِ هاوياتِكُمُ التي هَوَيْتُم إليها.
تذكّروا أمَّكم وأمَّ أمِّكُم، فاعتبروا
كونوا رجالاً كالرجالِ، فاتعظوا

وليكنْ ثوابُكم لا للسيفِ ولا للكِتاب
بل الى القلبِ، قلبِ الإنسان
فهبةُ الحياةِ أفضلُ من الموت
وحياةٌ إن وَهَبها – فلا يأخُذٌها! لأنها تقهرُ الموت.
لأن القلبَ رسالةُ اللهِ الحي
يطلُبُ الحياة
ينادي: الحريةَّ، الحرية!
يُنَبّيء : الحبَّ، الحب!
يأمرُ: الإحسانَ، الإحسان!
أنتم يا من تحرقون الأرضَ بشرقها
كما أحرقَ أسلافُكم غربَها -
آخرتُكم كآخرتِهم، بناركم تُحرقون.
تستظهرون آيات الدين
ولكنكم لم تفهموا آيات يوم الدين -
فيومُ فرحِكم ترحُكم
والأرضُ التي تطؤونها ستلفظكم
عقابُكم كجسامةِ جرائمِكم,
نهايتكم كنهاية آخر الأشباح
يزولون بزوال الليل
اسمكم كالبصاق يُذكر لكي يُمحى
ذكراكم يُكتب كي يُخلّد موتُكم -
موت الشر في العالم.
وإن بقيتْ فيكم ذرة خير، ضئيلة وخفية كشامة ولادة، من رحمِ أمّ وريحة حضنها -
فالله وبنيّه يحثونكم:
ألّا تتجاهلوا عطيته الالهية هذه
وارووا ذرة الانسان هذه بدموعكم تغفيرا عن ذنوبكم
وارعوها باعمالكم بالصلاح والاحسان
لا تنتظروا رمضان القادمٓ كي تصوموا وتستغفروا
لأن الجرائم التي ستحاكمون عليها امام الرب
ليست لقلة تقواكم
انما لمغالاتكم
ليست لقلة ايمانكم
بل لكثرة ايمانكم الكاذب
ليست لمظاهر ضعف اعتقادكم
بل لمظاهر العنف والبطش.
أنتم الابنُ البغيضُ المتحصّنُ ببغضِه لأخيه
والنفسُ المحرومةُ من المكان والراحة فتسيطر على كل الفراغ ,
فإن طلبتم بركةَ أبيكم
وقد نأيتم عنه كثيرا
عليكم العَوْدُ والقربُ إلى طَبْعه وطِيبه وصورته:
الله أكبر بالإحسان
الله أكبر بالسلام
ألله أكبر من اللانهاية وأوسع من احتواء
المؤمنين والكفارالذين خلقهم هم أيضا
ووهبهم من نِعمِه أرضا.
ألله أكبر لا يحتاج ولا يرضى
أن يكبّلوا من أجله الإنسان.
لا تسجنوا أنفسَكم بين جدرانِ القوانينِ الصارمةِ التي سننتم
لا تجعلوا نساءكم أمَواتٍ – فتكونون عبيدا
لا تُدخلوا أنفسَكم في زِنزانةِ عقيدتِكم، فيكبُرأولادُكم فيها برعب
وينقلب عليكم قلبُهم كرها.
حطموا السيف:
ثوروا على الموت في داخلكم واجنوا الحياة
ثوروا على الخوف من الآخر واجنوا الوداد
ثوروا على البغضاء واجنوا المحبة
ثوروا على حافز الفتح واجنوا السكينة
ثوروا على الغطرسة بأنكم تعرفون الحقيقة
واجنوا جوارَ الله بالخشوع ليس إلا.
اغسلوا من الدم أياديكم فيباركُ رؤوسَكم بيديه.
وإلاّ –
فعلى انفسكم تطلقون النار،
ورؤوسكم تقطعون،
ونساءكم تغتصبون،
وأولادكم تقتلون.
كل الصور التي تصورونها بلذة أمام العالم -
ما هي بمنظور التاريخ ومنظور الأبد
إلا انعكاسكم في المرآة
تقعون في الحفرالتي حفرتموها بايديكم
وتنفخون فقاقيع الهواء في أرض العراق
في أرض سوريا
في أرض الشام
وقد حملتموها على رؤوسكم وظهوركم
على قبوركم,
أنتم –
الأحياء الميّتون.

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Why do People Send all these Spam Comments?

Posted by Deb | Uncategorized | Monday 28 July 2014 5:22 pm

The comments on this site are moderated, but recently I get so many spam comments I just don’t get around to sort them. I now decided to sort some. I logged into my admin panel and found 568 comments. The big majority of them are just spam. Comments whose sole purpose is to get a link to the commentator’s webiste, or youtube video, or whatever.

I wouldn’t mind if these commentator’s write an intelligent post, adding something to what I wrote or even thanking me for writing it or commenting on it in a nice way, and in words that show they have read my post and know what it is about. But so many of these comments are clearly sent by some robot. Some comments have some rubbish. Others have a few sentences which speak about the link they are posting, even though it is not related to my post, or to trading in general, in any way. Other comments repeat themselves so many times, clearly by a few people that bought the same robot and are sending their comments everywhere hoping some sites are not moderated and are posting them.

I have once got from a friend such a robot utility, and took a look at the comments it generated. Honestly, I was embarrassed to use it. Especially since I have this blog and know how irritating it is to get all these comments and sift through them.

I will copy here some of these rubbish comments (without their links, of course), so you can see what I mean:

 ”Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a really well written article. I will make sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful info. Thanks for the post. I will definitely return.”

(I got this comment a few hundrend times, and I am not exaggerating)

“Acitretin has been approved by the FDA for treatment
of psoriasis, although it is less effective than Etretinate, which it has replaced.

This allows fresh new skin cells to replace the old ones that have flaked off.
It is also really drying so applying a moisturizer first before the treatment and allowing it to dry is recommended.”

What is the connection to my blog, you ask? No connection. I have never posted about anything remotely connected to this. This is just a spammer trying to add a link to his supplements site.

“Fantastic blog! Do you have any helpful hints for aspiring writers?

I’m hoping to start my
own website soon but I’m a little lost on everything.
Would you suggest starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid
option? There are so many choices out there that I’m totally overwhelmed .. Any ideas? Many thanks!

I would be inclined to answer this person seriously had I not gotten this same exact comment, in the same exact wording, so many times. Anyway, it is so annoying to do all this sifting. It is especially when I really work on some post, and they I get so much rubbish comments, I don’t know how many people have actually read my post.

 

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What Really Happens in Israel and Gaza

Posted by Deb | Politics | Tuesday 8 July 2014 8:53 am

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What is the Palestinians Real Goal?

Posted by Deb | Politics | Tuesday 8 July 2014 8:51 am

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What is the West Bank?

Posted by Deb | Politics | Sunday 6 July 2014 9:22 am

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What is Your Main Drive – Pleasure or Fear?

Posted by Deb | Day Trading Journey | Monday 24 February 2014 10:03 pm

A friend told me this story: He was driving back home very late, or actually very early in morning – around 2AM. In the middle of the way, he saw a deer running up to the side of the highway and just stopping there – staring in his direction. The deer was about 1/2 mile ahead of him, as he was going about 65 mph, so he had only seconds to react. Thinking quickly, my friend flashed his high beams at the deer. Luckily, he turned and ran back into the woods almost immediately.

As my friend was telling me this story, we were wondering what he could have done if that deer had darted out in front of the car instead of turning back. Luckily, we didn’t have to find out.

We tried to figure out: Why did he turn back instead of darting across the highway in front of the car? Did the flashing high beams make him sense danger and move or was it the sound of approaching car that made him turn back? I suppose we don’t have any way to know.

Anyway, this brings me to the point of this rant: In a lot of ways we are like that deer.

Sometimes we run away from things that we fear instead of moving towards things we want and it’s often difficult to figure out what motivates us to do the things we do.

I heard once a lecturer who argued that the successful people are those who are mostly motivated by the pursuit of pleasure rather than pain. In trading, I know that being constantly afraid of losing is the worst thing. You will end up closing all your successful trades to early, and won’t be able to make any profit. You have to be somewhat afraid of pain so that you will be careful, but letting that be your main dirve will lead to failure.

Many people are motivated by pain or fear: Fear of not having any money, fear of losing the money they have, fear of not having enough money to pay their bills or send their kids off to college, fear of losing their place in society.

What’s your motivation?

Many people are driven by some bad memory of failure. This failure takes possession of their thoughts and hopes, and doesn’t let them motivate themselves for success. The fear of failure is so big, that they repeat it again and again.

How much of what we do is being influenced by of some kind event in our lives that sucked or other people?

Someone once told me: “If you don’t take charge of your life there are lots of other people who will be happy to do it for you.”

Don’t be that person. Take charge of your life. Move yourself toward self-directed behavior.

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