Betting on Deflation May Be a Huge Mistake. Here’s Why…

Posted by Deb | Guest Post | Thursday 21 January 2016 11:08 pm

By Clint Siegner, Money Metals Exchange

Precious metals investors heading into 2016 worry the dollar will continue marching ahead, right over the top of gold and silver prices. The Fed is telegraphing additional rate hikes throughout the year, and commodity prices – led by crude oil – are falling. There have been tremors in the biggest beneficiary markets of all when it comes to the Fed’s QE largesse – U.S. equities and real estate. And the possibility of a recession is growing, both in the U.S. and around the world.

inflationThere are plenty of reasons we might see even lower official inflation numbers and a stronger dollar in 2016. But don’t think for a second that consumer prices or living costs will fall. They haven’t, they aren’t, and they never will in a sustained way – thanks to the Fed’s creation in 1913. This is where the deflationists have it wrong.

The impact of further disinflationary forces or even a deflationary episode on precious metals prices is a bit harder to predict.

The bear case for precious metals is rather simple. Should metals trade like commodities, they are likely to follow other raw materials lower. If we get a liquidity crunch akin to the 2008 financial crisis, just about everything will be sold as investors raise cash to meet margin calls or flee to the dollar as a perceived safe-haven.

There is also the possibility that metals prices will simply be managed lower. Growing numbers of investors realize that Wall Street is not a bulwark of free markets. Major banks have admitted to rigging markets against their own customers, and the Federal Reserve aggressively intervenes in markets in its quest to centrally plan the world economy. Why wouldn’t the Fed also be active in trading precious metals? Those dismissing the notion that metals prices are manipulated are naive.

Today’s Situation Is Different Than 2008

The bear case assumes history, in particular the experience surrounding 2008, will repeat. Or that there is still plenty of ability for anyone seeking to force metals prices lower in the futures market to actually do so. Or both.

Maybe. But relying on those assumptions could be a tragic mistake.

For starters, the U.S. dollar is already near record highs. Meanwhile, commodities and precious metals have been beaten down mercilessly. This set-up is the complete opposite of what faced investors leading up to the summer of 2008. And even though stocks and commodities got hammered in 2008, gold posted modest gains for the year as a safe haven from the threat of a collapsing economy.

Lower gold and silver prices have already produced an imbalance between bullion supply and demand. Supply deficits in 2016 are likely to make the developing problem with inventory at the COMEX and other exchanges even bigger. Registered stocks of gold all but vanished recently as bargain hunters, particularly in Asia, have been happy to buy and take delivery. Silver inventories aren’t in much better shape.

deflation_inflationMore deliverable bars must come from existing stocks, but holders won’t be anxious to sell. Those with “eligible” COMEX bars have certainly been slow to convert them to “registered” of late. By all indications, miners will be unable to provide the needed supply.

With prices below the cost of production, mine output is set to drop significantly this year.

If the metals markets look forward, as markets are supposed to do, they will anticipate the Fed’s response to a strengthening dollar and economic malaise. In 2008, investors knew little about the lengths to which the Fed would be willing to go. Today they DO know. The Fed will overwhelm deflation by creating new inflation.

Markets are completely dependent on Fed stimulus, and people simply expect officials to roll out an even bigger initiative whenever the need arises. Anything to prevent the cleansing effect of corrective forces from restoring heath to the economy. In a recent interview, market expert Jim Rickards predicted the Fed will abandon rate increases and actually commence lowering before the year’s end.

Metals investors should take heart in the fact that gold and silver prices have shown some resilience in the face of disinflationary forces recently. Both metals outperformed oil and most other commodities last year. Yes, prices declined roughly 11% for both metals. But crude oil fell 36% and copper lost 22%. The precious metals gained purchasing power against many other things.

Bottom line: Don’t bet on a meaningful deflation. Fed officials will not allow it. And they can keystroke dollars into existence until the power goes out for good.

Clint SiegnerClint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 “Dealer of the Year” in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, Siegner puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals’ brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.



Learning to be an Internet Marketer and Getting Paid for That!

Posted by Deb | Uncategorized | Tuesday 16 June 2015 11:27 pm

I’ve been following a few internet marketing gurus in the last few years. One of these is Jeremy Schoemaker.

Recently he wrote on his newsletter about his new training program. He said he is becoming very frustrated of the fact there are so many people who get on his blog’s newsletter, or buy some his products. but than never seem to even read the content he sends them, let alone act upon it. He decided to have a new type of training program: This program would be free, and even more than that – he would pay each student for accomplishing one of the tasks on his programs.

Well, of course I signed up. More because I was curious to see what his angle was than anything else. The first task was very simple and I instantly received a dollar in my paypal account. and yet I never paid him anything.

Then I continued and went through the course now setting up my website. Then installing a theme, then installing plugins, etc etc. By the end of the 2nd level he send me $3. The course continued and I was glued.

Jeremy not only walks you through setting up everything step by step (and paying you as you accomplish the tasks, but also makes it fun awarding you belts like a karate system.

By the time I received my black belt I was sent $15.


But while the money was fun and kept me going, at the end I had a great blog with all the key plugins. A decked out facebook page and a email newsletter.

I admit, I have spend many hours near my computer playing farmville, but with this program so but this was like that only at the end you keep the farm and you have something of real value.

Again I never paid him $1. I kept waiting to see the trick but there truly is none.

If you seem skeptical give it a try it and when you make your first dollar in five minutes you will be as hooked as me. I just want to say thank you Jeremy. Click here to register.


What Can We Expect for the US Dollar, Gold and Oil in the Year 2015?

Posted by Deb | Guest Post,Investments | Monday 15 June 2015 8:28 pm

This last year, 2014, will undoubtedly take its place in the history. During 2014, risks had been growing around Ukraine and the Middle East. One of the main events of the year was the collapse of oil prices. In June, 2014 barrel costed about 115$, but in the last days of the year quotes slumped to  56$.

What Can we expect for the year 2015?

Oil market

The main reasons for the oil prices collapse in 2014 were:

  • Increase of hydrocarbons production in the USA from 9.8 to 11.5 mln barrels per day;
  • Recession in countries of the European Union led to decrease in consumption and prices of hydrocarbons;
  • Growth of supply in Iran planning to increase production twice and Libya’s return to the market;
  • Technological factor: improvement of technology of production and decrease of prime cost as the result.

Currently, one can witness a disproportion between demand and supply: Every  day,  the level of oil production exceeds the market  demand by 600-700 thousand of barrels.

Analytics of the US investment banks assume that sometime during the first two quarters of 2015 year this index can grow up to 1.25 mln barrels per day. This factor will put a strong pressure on oil quotations,  so that we may see  again the low values  of 2008, when the  cost of Brent was $36 per barrel.

US dollar

The main global currency was boosted by the growth of the US economy which was growing with the fastest pace of the last 11 years. The US department of commerce revised its GDP estimation and defined it up to 5% per annum. Such estimation was justified by a higher consumer demand  and expenses of business. It was the fastest pace since 2003. It had been reported earlier that US economy grew for 3.9%.

This intensive growth in 2014 lays a solid foundation for 2015 and we can expect that the US currency will be consolidated against its major competitors.


Finally,  let’s talk about gold. Since there is no inflation risk in the USA – on the contrary, deflation presses Europe – there is no ground for traders to invest in gold: savings are not depreciated. This can make the precious metals less popular and quotes of gold may get to $1100 per ounce.

Confident growth of the US economy will support global markets through 2015, whereas low oil prices will have a positive effect for the economic growth in general.


Epistle to ISIS (by Sivan Har-Shefi)

Posted by Deb | Politics | Friday 12 September 2014 4:06 pm

Epistle to ISIS | Sivan Harshefi | Translation: Moshe Pollak*

You who say: “Infidels! You have no God!”
you know not humanity, heart, God’s Image.
You who behead men into pits
you who bind women’s heads
with the black of night
you who turn their homes into prisons,
their houses into graves
you who repudiate Life!
you who deny Good!
you who disown Peace!
all which are names of God.
You the hooded
who cover your faces to strike fear —
from fear of yourselves, of your god,
from fear of your own stiff–necked faces
your hollow non-faces
that have no absolution.
You who chop off hands held out
Lifelines, caresses of love, pleas for mercy –
who is this god of yours, cruel and cowardly,,
threatened by free thought,
terrified of a body designed in His Image,
full of hatred for His Creations,
who pursues them like one pursued?
You who glory in death
you who exult in might
in death and in might will be your shame!
You who sow fear and destruction
shall reap the fruits of terror and devastation!
For God is greater than your narrow-mindedness,
greater than a peephole that you don’t leave for eyes to see
the beauty of the world that He created.
For greater is the spirit of Man
than the noose you tie round his neck.
For greater is the energy of Life, the power of Love, the strength of Peace
than the might of your hand that shall quiver when disarmed by the Administrator of Justice
Who has compassion for the compassionate,
greater than the confidence of your conviction that will dissolve on judgment day
like a fart, with its scent of corrupt honor and greed
greater indeed than the force of your hatred that is deaf to your soul’s weeping
over the abyss of abysses into which you have sunk.
Remember your mother and her mother, and repent.
Be real men, and recant.
And let your return be not to the sword nor to the book,
but to the heart, a human heart,
and to the life it gave gave, not took!
for the heart is the beat of a living God
Who seeks Life.
Who calls: Freedom!
Whose prophecy is: Love!
Who commands: Mercy!
You who ignite the Eastern hemisphere
just as your predecessors inflamed the Western half
your end will be as theirs, in the fire you started you will be consumed.
You faithfully catechized the verses of judgment
but you did not learn the verdicts of judgment day
the day of your joy is the day of your woe,
the land you conquer will vomit you forth,
your punishment will be vast as your crimes,
your aftermath will be as that of all ghosts
that dissipate with night
your name will be spitfully remembered just to be eradicated
your memory recorded only to perpetuate your death
the demise of evil in the world.
If a speck of goodness is left in you, tiny and hidden as a birthmark,
from your mother’s womb and her bosom’s warmth
God and his children urge you:
do not ignore this gift of God
water this human vestige with your tears to atone for your actions
nurture it with deeds of amendment and benevolence
do not wait until the next Ramadan to fast and atone for your evils
for you will be indicted by God
not for underdevotion
but for overdevotion
not for lack of faith
but for overabundance of false convictions
not for feebleness
but for force and violence.
You are the unloved son who is entrenched in his hatred to his brothers,
the exploited soul that, having no room and no rest, dominates all
if you desire your Father’s blessing
from Whom you distanced yourself so far,
return and draw near to His goodness, to His image:
Allahu akbar (God is Great) in compassion
Allahu akbar in peace
Allah is greater than infinity, and wide enough to contain
believers and infidels, both of whom He created,
for all of whom in His grace He made space.
Allah is great and does not need and does not wish
that man be handcuffed to Him.
Do not imprison yourselves behind solid walls of laws you legislated,
do not turn your women – hence yourselves – into slaves
do not get locked in the solitary confinement of your beliefs,
where your children will grow up in fear
until their hearts will turn in hatred against you.
slash the sword:
revolt against death to gain life
rebel against fear of the other to gain friendship
rise up against hatred to win love
overthrow the instinct of conquest, to attain peace of mind
purge hubris – you did not swallow all wisdom – to gain God’s proximity,
attainable only through humility.
wash blood off your hands, and your Father will place His on your heads.
it is you yourselves that you shoot,
your own heads that you decapitate,
your own women that you rape,
your own children that you kill,
and all those images that you gleefully broadcast to the world
in the judgment of history, from the vantage-point of posterity,
they are but a mirror-image of yourselves
falling into the trenches that you dug with your own hands
emitting last bubbles of air under the soil of Iraq,
under the ground of Syria,
under the earth of the Levant
that you’ve heaped on your heads and backs
– your graves to be –
you ,
the living dead.


*My thanks to Esther Cameron for her help in translation


سفر داعش بقلم سيفان هار شيفي
ترجمة روجيه طابور

أنتم القائلون: “كفار! لا إله لكم” –
لستم الانسانٓ، لستم القلبٓ ولستم على صورة الخالق.
أنتم القاطعون الرؤوسٓ الى الحُفر
أنتم اللاجمون عقول النساء
بحلكة الظلام –
أنتم الجاعلون بيتَهنّ سجنَهنّ
بيتَهنّ قبرَهُنّ –
أنتم الكافرون بالحياة!
أنتم الجاحدون بالخير!
أنتمُ الرّافضون للسّلام!
وكلُّها أسماءُ الله الحُسنى.
أنتم ملثّمو الوجوه
يا مَن تُخْفون وجوهَكم لتُخيفوا
وبخوفكم تتستّرون من وجوهكم، من وجهِ ربِّكم
خوفاً مِن وجوهِكم القاسية كالرِّقاب
خوفا مِن لا وجوهِكُمُ الجَوْفاء
حيث لا مغفرة لها.
أنتم القاطعون الأيدي الممدودة
عروقُ حياةٍ فيها، لمساتُ حُبٍّ واسْترحام –
مَن إلهكُمُ الشريرُ الهَلوع
تهددُهُ حرية الفكر
يُرعبه جسمٌ بصورته
يكرهُ كلَّ مَن خَلَق
يُطاردُهم كالمُطارَد؟
أنتم المتباهون بالموت
أنتم المتفاخرون بالبطش –
بالموت والسيف لكم العار!
أنتم الزارعون الخوفَ والدمار
حصرم الرعبِ والخراب ستَضْرِسون!
لأن الله أكبرُ من ضيق عقولكم
ومِنَ الثقوبِ التي لا تُبقونَها لتَرَوْن
جمالَ ما خَلـَق.
لأنَّ روحَ الإنسانِ أكبرَ
من طوقٍ علـّـقـتُموه على جيدِه.
لأنّ نبضَ الحياةِ ونبضَ الحبِّ والسّلام
أقوى مِن ذراعكم المرتعِشةِ يومَ يجيءُ الحقُّ
الراحمِ للرّاحمين,
وأقوى من إيمانكم فسيُزهقُ الباطلُ يومَ الدين
كتلاشي الفُساء، رائحتُهُ كنَفْحَةِ شَرَهِ الصَوْلَةٍ وَالجاه,
وأقوى مِن قسوة حِقْدِكُمُ المتجاهِلِ لأرواحِكُمُ الباكية
على هاويةِ هاوياتِكُمُ التي هَوَيْتُم إليها.
تذكّروا أمَّكم وأمَّ أمِّكُم، فاعتبروا
كونوا رجالاً كالرجالِ، فاتعظوا

وليكنْ ثوابُكم لا للسيفِ ولا للكِتاب
بل الى القلبِ، قلبِ الإنسان
فهبةُ الحياةِ أفضلُ من الموت
وحياةٌ إن وَهَبها – فلا يأخُذٌها! لأنها تقهرُ الموت.
لأن القلبَ رسالةُ اللهِ الحي
يطلُبُ الحياة
ينادي: الحريةَّ، الحرية!
يُنَبّيء : الحبَّ، الحب!
يأمرُ: الإحسانَ، الإحسان!
أنتم يا من تحرقون الأرضَ بشرقها
كما أحرقَ أسلافُكم غربَها –
آخرتُكم كآخرتِهم، بناركم تُحرقون.
تستظهرون آيات الدين
ولكنكم لم تفهموا آيات يوم الدين –
فيومُ فرحِكم ترحُكم
والأرضُ التي تطؤونها ستلفظكم
عقابُكم كجسامةِ جرائمِكم,
نهايتكم كنهاية آخر الأشباح
يزولون بزوال الليل
اسمكم كالبصاق يُذكر لكي يُمحى
ذكراكم يُكتب كي يُخلّد موتُكم –
موت الشر في العالم.
وإن بقيتْ فيكم ذرة خير، ضئيلة وخفية كشامة ولادة، من رحمِ أمّ وريحة حضنها –
فالله وبنيّه يحثونكم:
ألّا تتجاهلوا عطيته الالهية هذه
وارووا ذرة الانسان هذه بدموعكم تغفيرا عن ذنوبكم
وارعوها باعمالكم بالصلاح والاحسان
لا تنتظروا رمضان القادمٓ كي تصوموا وتستغفروا
لأن الجرائم التي ستحاكمون عليها امام الرب
ليست لقلة تقواكم
انما لمغالاتكم
ليست لقلة ايمانكم
بل لكثرة ايمانكم الكاذب
ليست لمظاهر ضعف اعتقادكم
بل لمظاهر العنف والبطش.
أنتم الابنُ البغيضُ المتحصّنُ ببغضِه لأخيه
والنفسُ المحرومةُ من المكان والراحة فتسيطر على كل الفراغ ,
فإن طلبتم بركةَ أبيكم
وقد نأيتم عنه كثيرا
عليكم العَوْدُ والقربُ إلى طَبْعه وطِيبه وصورته:
الله أكبر بالإحسان
الله أكبر بالسلام
ألله أكبر من اللانهاية وأوسع من احتواء
المؤمنين والكفارالذين خلقهم هم أيضا
ووهبهم من نِعمِه أرضا.
ألله أكبر لا يحتاج ولا يرضى
أن يكبّلوا من أجله الإنسان.
لا تسجنوا أنفسَكم بين جدرانِ القوانينِ الصارمةِ التي سننتم
لا تجعلوا نساءكم أمَواتٍ – فتكونون عبيدا
لا تُدخلوا أنفسَكم في زِنزانةِ عقيدتِكم، فيكبُرأولادُكم فيها برعب
وينقلب عليكم قلبُهم كرها.
حطموا السيف:
ثوروا على الموت في داخلكم واجنوا الحياة
ثوروا على الخوف من الآخر واجنوا الوداد
ثوروا على البغضاء واجنوا المحبة
ثوروا على حافز الفتح واجنوا السكينة
ثوروا على الغطرسة بأنكم تعرفون الحقيقة
واجنوا جوارَ الله بالخشوع ليس إلا.
اغسلوا من الدم أياديكم فيباركُ رؤوسَكم بيديه.
وإلاّ –
فعلى انفسكم تطلقون النار،
ورؤوسكم تقطعون،
ونساءكم تغتصبون،
وأولادكم تقتلون.
كل الصور التي تصورونها بلذة أمام العالم –
ما هي بمنظور التاريخ ومنظور الأبد
إلا انعكاسكم في المرآة
تقعون في الحفرالتي حفرتموها بايديكم
وتنفخون فقاقيع الهواء في أرض العراق
في أرض سوريا
في أرض الشام
وقد حملتموها على رؤوسكم وظهوركم
على قبوركم,
أنتم –
الأحياء الميّتون.


Why do People Send all these Spam Comments?

Posted by Deb | Uncategorized | Monday 28 July 2014 5:22 pm

The comments on this site are moderated, but recently I get so many spam comments I just don’t get around to sort them. I now decided to sort some. I logged into my admin panel and found 568 comments. The big majority of them are just spam. Comments whose sole purpose is to get a link to the commentator’s webiste, or youtube video, or whatever.

I wouldn’t mind if these commentator’s write an intelligent post, adding something to what I wrote or even thanking me for writing it or commenting on it in a nice way, and in words that show they have read my post and know what it is about. But so many of these comments are clearly sent by some robot. Some comments have some rubbish. Others have a few sentences which speak about the link they are posting, even though it is not related to my post, or to trading in general, in any way. Other comments repeat themselves so many times, clearly by a few people that bought the same robot and are sending their comments everywhere hoping some sites are not moderated and are posting them.

I have once got from a friend such a robot utility, and took a look at the comments it generated. Honestly, I was embarrassed to use it. Especially since I have this blog and know how irritating it is to get all these comments and sift through them.

I will copy here some of these rubbish comments (without their links, of course), so you can see what I mean:

 “Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a really well written article. I will make sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful info. Thanks for the post. I will definitely return.”

(I got this comment a few hundrend times, and I am not exaggerating)

“Acitretin has been approved by the FDA for treatment
of psoriasis, although it is less effective than Etretinate, which it has replaced.

This allows fresh new skin cells to replace the old ones that have flaked off.
It is also really drying so applying a moisturizer first before the treatment and allowing it to dry is recommended.”

What is the connection to my blog, you ask? No connection. I have never posted about anything remotely connected to this. This is just a spammer trying to add a link to his supplements site.

“Fantastic blog! Do you have any helpful hints for aspiring writers?

I’m hoping to start my
own website soon but I’m a little lost on everything.
Would you suggest starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid
option? There are so many choices out there that I’m totally overwhelmed .. Any ideas? Many thanks!

I would be inclined to answer this person seriously had I not gotten this same exact comment, in the same exact wording, so many times. Anyway, it is so annoying to do all this sifting. It is especially when I really work on some post, and they I get so much rubbish comments, I don’t know how many people have actually read my post.



What Really Happens in Israel and Gaza

Posted by Deb | Politics | Tuesday 8 July 2014 8:53 am


What is the Palestinians Real Goal?

Posted by Deb | Politics | Tuesday 8 July 2014 8:51 am

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